Donald Trump won the 2024 U.S. presidential election, defeating Democratic candidate Kamala Harris. His victory was characterized by a voter coalition that was notably more racially and ethnically diverse than in previous elections, in particular compared to 2020 and 2016. According to the Pew Research Center, Trump's 2024 coalition included higher proportions of Hispanic, Black, and Asian voters than in prior years, reflecting a shift in demographic support that contributed decisively to his success.
The overall turnout in the 2024 election was about 64% of eligible voters, which was the second highest in more than a century, closely trailing the record set in the 2020 election. Despite high turnout, Pew's analysis suggests that if every eligible voter had cast a ballot, Trump still would have maintained a win, securing approximately 48% of the vote versus Harris's 45%. This indicates that Trump's support extended beyond just those who typically vote and included a significant number of non-voters who shifted in his favor compared to previous cycles, when non-voters leaned more Democratic.
Trump secured 312 Electoral College votes against Harris's 226. His margin of victory in the popular vote was narrow but definitive, with Trump receiving roughly 49.7% of the total votes compared to Harris's 48.3%. His gains were especially strong in key battleground states such as Arizona and Nevada, where he made significant inroads into Latino voter populations. There were also notable gains in states traditionally seen as blue or Democratic strongholds, reflecting a broader geographic reach for his coalition.
Several demographic shifts were critical to Trump's 2024 victory:
- Hispanic Voters: Trump nearly equaled Harris among Hispanic voters, reducing Biden's previous lead from 61%-36% in 2020 to a near tie at 51% for Harris and 48% for Trump in 2024. This marked a major realignment among this group.
- Black Voters: Though Black voters still predominantly backed the Democratic candidate, Trump's support among Black voters increased from 8% in 2020 to 15% in 2024.
- Asian Voters: Trump improved his share of Asian voters to 40%, narrowing the gap compared to Harris's 57%, whereas Biden had a larger margin among Asians in 2020 (70% to 30%).
- Gender and Age: Trump expanded his margins among men, including men under 50, winning the latter group narrowly whereas Biden won this demographic in 2020.
Turnout differences between Republicans and Democrats were another crucial factor. Republicans, particularly Trump supporters, had higher turnout rates compared to Democrats supporting Harris. This dynamic was more influential than voters switching allegiances between parties. Trump especially appealed to voters without four-year college degrees, winning this group by a 14-point marginâdouble his 2016 margin in this demographic. Harris maintained an advantage among voters with college degrees, but that advantage shrank compared to Biden's in 2020.
The urban-rural divide remained stark, with Trump winning rural voters by a large margin (69%-29%), a gap wider than in previous elections. Conversely, Harris dominated urban areas, though her margins were slightly smaller than Biden's in 2020. Religious attendance was another dividing factor, with Trump commanding a solid majority of voters who attended religious services monthly or more, a trend consistent with past elections.
Economic issues were a central theme of the 2024 election. Inflation and the rising costs of everyday essentials motivated many voters. Trump successfully capitalized on economic dissatisfaction by criticizing the Biden-Harris administration's handling of inflation and cost-of-living increases. Surveys showed that a large proportion of Trump supporters cited economic concerns, especially inflation, as the most important factor in their voting decision, far more so than Harris voters.
In summary, Trump's 2024 election victory was shaped by a combination of expanded demographic appeal, particularly among Hispanic, Black, and Asian voters; strong turnout among Republican-leaning voters; gains with men and non-college-educated voters; and the ability to frame the election discourse around economic issues impacting everyday Americans. These elements combined to deliver him both the popular vote and a comfortable Electoral College victory, despite a narrow overall margin.